What Central Banks Are Actually Watching Right Now

The Federal Reserve meets this week for the first time under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, and they're holding rates. So is the Bank of England. And Sweden. And Switzerland. Seven of the world's biggest central banks are all doing the same thing, which is basically nothing, and that tells you something about where we are.

It's been 100 days since the Iran conflict escalated, and central bankers still can't decide whether the bigger threat is inflation getting worse or growth slowing down. So they're waiting. The problem is that waiting only works if you're confident the situation will clarify itself, and right now it's doing the opposite.

Warsh was a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, and traders are trying to figure out which version shows up to the press conference this week. The recent version who talked about lower rates, or the inflation hawk version from the financial crisis era. That matters because US inflation just hit the fastest pace in over three years in May, and if it keeps going, the Fed might have to hike instead of hold.

The jobs report was stronger than expected. Retail sales are projected to rise 0.5% in May, which suggests consumers are still spending even as prices outpace wages. That's not sustainable long-term, but it's holding for now. Industrial production data drops Monday, housing starts Tuesday, and the Fed meets June 16-17. The setup is basically this: if inflation keeps accelerating and consumers keep spending, the hold turns into a hike. If growth starts cracking, the hold turns into a cut later this year. The Fed doesn't know which yet.

The Bank of England meets Thursday, and the majority of officials are expected to block a rate hike even though inflation data Wednesday will probably show prices picking up again. Labor market numbers come out the morning of the decision. The UK's in the same spot as the US: inflation's a problem, but growth isn't strong enough to justify tightening into it.

Sweden's Riksbank is likely to hold as well. The economy's weak enough that they've got room to wait, and updated forecasts this week might signal borrowing costs could rise starting next year. Norway's a close call after they pivoted hard in May, but most analysts think they hold off until September because business sentiment data showed activity was softer than expected in March.

Switzerland's a different case. The Swiss National Bank will probably keep rates at zero because safe-haven flows into the franc complicate everything. Voters there also decide Sunday on whether to cap the country's population at 10 million, which won't affect monetary policy now but could reshape the economy long-term. That vote happens the same weekend as the G7 summit in France, where Trump's expected to push for a peace deal with Iran.

The only major moves this week are the Bank of Japan hiking to 1% to continue exiting ultra-low rates, and maybe Norway if they surprise. Everything else is on hold.

The European Central Bank already hiked last week, their first increase since 2023. Australia and Norway hiked earlier. So there's already a split happening between central banks that think inflation is the bigger risk and ones that think growth is. The Fed's in the middle of that split, which is why Warsh's first press conference matters. If he leans hawkish, markets will price in hikes. If he emphasizes the growth risks, they'll price in cuts.

More than 20 central banks representing over 40% of global output are making rate decisions this week, and most of them are doing nothing. That's a signal. It means the macro picture is murky enough that nobody wants to commit to a direction yet.

For traders, that translates to chop. When central banks are this cautious, volatility tends to stay elevated but directionless. If you're not familiar with how to navigate range-bound markets, the short version is you trade the extremes of the range and cut losers fast when structure breaks.

China releases a batch of May activity data Tuesday. Retail sales are expected to be flat year-over-year, industrial production might accelerate slightly, and everyone's watching property investment and residential sales to see if the housing downturn is stabilizing. It probably isn't, but the question is whether it's getting worse or just staying bad.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to pause after three hikes, leaving rates at 4.35%. That would be the first hold of 2026 for them. The Bank of Japan's hike to 1% is basically locked in, and the focus will be on how they talk about wage growth and inflation. Japan's exit from ultra-low rates has been the slowest normalization cycle in modern central banking history, and they're still being extremely careful about it.

Japan's trade data Wednesday should show another solid month, and core machinery orders will give a read on business investment. Singapore's non-oil exports are projected to stay strong. Taiwan holds rates. New Zealand reports Q1 GDP Thursday, with growth expected to jump to 0.9% quarter-over-quarter from 0.2% in Q4.

The Philippines is expected to hike, Indonesia probably holds after their surprise hike earlier this month. Japan's May CPI is forecast at 1.5% year-over-year, which is still below the 2% target but moving in the right direction.

Brazil's central bank is probably cutting rates to 14.25% even though inflation's above target and the economy's still running hot. They've got just enough room for a third straight quarter-point cut, but that might be it. GDP-proxy data for April will show whether growth is finally cooling or if the pre-election fiscal stimulus is still juicing things.

Chile was looking at a hike until May inflation surprised to the downside. Now consensus is for a fourth straight hold at 4.5%. Peru's GDP-proxy report will likely show 25 straight months of expansion, the longest streak since before the pandemic. Colombia releases a bunch of April indicators over three days, and first-quarter output already beat estimates, so momentum's still there.

South Africa's inflation is expected to hit 4.7% in May, and the central bank hiked a quarter-point last month. Their scenarios basically say if the Iran conflict drags on and pushes food and oil prices higher while weakening the rand, they'll have to tighten more. That's the tradeoff right now: growth versus inflation, and nobody knows which breaks first.

When this many central banks are on hold at the same time, it usually means one of two things. Either they're waiting for more data because the picture's unclear, or they're waiting because they know something bad is coming and don't want to commit to a path yet.

Right now it's probably the first one. The Iran conflict just passed 100 days, and central bankers legitimately don't know if that's more inflationary (higher oil and food prices) or more deflationary (demand destruction from uncertainty). So they're waiting.

The problem is that markets don't wait. Volatility stays elevated, correlations break down, and mechanical setups based on structure work better than directional bets. If you're trying to trade what the Fed's going to do next, you're guessing. If you're trading what price is doing at key levels right now, you've got something to work with.

Watch Warsh's press conference. Watch China's activity data. Watch whether the UK actually blocks that hike or surprises. But mostly, watch how price reacts to the levels that matter in the markets you trade, because that's the only thing that's actually tradable right now.

Central banks are stuck, and when they're stuck, trends die. That doesn't mean there's no opportunity. It just means the opportunity looks different than it did six months ago.