When Central Banks All Meet the Same Week (And What It Means for Bonds)

All seven major central banks are meeting this week. Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada. That's not something that happens often. Together, these institutions set monetary policy for roughly half the world's economy, and they're all convening within a 72-hour window.

Nobody expects rate changes. Markets are pricing holds across the board. But bond traders aren't watching for what gets changed this week. They're watching for what gets said about inflation, and whether the rhetoric shifts hawkish enough to keep selling pressure on government debt.

The context matters here. Oil supply got hit harder than it has in decades because of the US-Iran conflict. Crude prices spiked. Inflation data started ticking back up in the UK, US, and Europe. And central bankers remember 2021, when they called inflation "transitory" and got burned. They're not making that mistake again.

Stocks and credit markets have mostly recovered to pre-war levels. Equities rallied. Corporate bonds held up. But government bonds? They've lagged, and shorter-term yields are still elevated compared to where they were before the conflict started.

That divergence is the interesting part. Equity traders looked past the war and bought the dip. Bond traders didn't, because bond traders care about inflation and rate policy, and both of those got messier in the past month.

Shorter-dated Treasuries, Gilts, and Bunds are the most sensitive to monetary policy. Those yields have stayed stuck while other risk assets moved. It's a standoff. Bonds want to follow equities higher (which means yields dropping), but they can't until there's clarity on whether central banks are going to stay tight or lean more dovish.

Volatility has been low. Daily yield swings on 1-3 year government notes averaged about two basis points this month, down from four basis points in March. That could change this week if any of the major central banks signal they're more worried about inflation than markets expected.

The real question isn't whether rates get hiked. It's whether Powell, Lagarde, or any of the other chairs sound hawkish enough to remind markets that inflation risk is still on the table.

Amy Xie Patrick, who runs a dynamic income strategy at Pendal Group that's beaten 91% of peers over five years, already exited all her duration exposure this month. Her take: "What have central bankers got to lose sounding hawkish now? There's the oil shock. There's the uncertain picture of inflation. Bonds want to follow the reversal we've seen in equities, but yields are so stuck."

If central banks emphasize inflation concerns over growth risks, that's bearish for bonds. Yields rise, prices fall. If they hedge and stay noncommittal, bonds probably stay range-bound. If they lean dovish and suggest cuts are coming sooner than expected, yields drop and bonds rally.

Right now, money markets are pricing maybe one or two hikes for the UK this year. Fed rate cut odds for year-end are swinging between 25% and 60% depending on the week. Nothing's settled.

Here's the tricky part. Central banks are stuck between two risks. Near-term inflation from higher oil prices, and medium-term growth slowdown if those higher prices hurt demand.

The US-Iran conflict rattled markets enough that traders have been trying to figure out which risk matters more. Short-term? Inflation. Long-term? Maybe recession if energy costs stay elevated and consumers pull back.

Central bankers can't ignore either one. They learned the hard way during the pandemic that dismissing inflation as temporary doesn't work. But if they tighten too much and growth collapses, they'll get blamed for that too.

So expect careful language. "We're monitoring both upside inflation risks and downside growth risks." "We need more data before committing to a path." That kind of thing. The problem for bond traders is that noncommittal doesn't help them price anything. They need a clearer signal.

Bank of Japan (Tuesday): Governor Kazuo Ueda has been emphasizing the need to assess both upside and downside inflation risks. Evercore ISI thinks the BOJ will deliver a "hawkish hold" that sets up hikes in June and December. If that's the tone, Japanese government bond yields could push higher.

Federal Reserve (Wednesday): Powell's probably going to stay neutral. The Fed knows the oil shock is real, but they also know employment and retail sales are holding up. TD Securities expects Powell to acknowledge the "recent uptick in inflation due to the oil shock" while noting "underlying inflation is only somewhat elevated." Translation: we're watching, but we're not panicking. 10-year Treasury yields have been trading in a 4.1%-4.4% range, and that probably continues unless Powell surprises with something more hawkish.

Bank of Canada (Wednesday): Canada's meeting the same day as the Fed. They've been dealing with inflation pressures too, though not as severe as the UK. Expect a similar "cautious hawkish" tone. No hikes, but reminders that cuts aren't coming soon.

European Central Bank (Thursday): Lagarde's been clear about elevated uncertainties, and she'll probably repeat that message. Markets are pricing a June hike as nearly certain, with another one coming by September. If she sounds more committed to those hikes than expected, European government bonds sell off. If she hedges, they hold.

Bank of England (Thursday): The UK's inflation data came in hotter than expected. CPI jumped to 3.3% in March from 3% the previous month, driven by motor fuel prices. That's why money markets went from pricing one hike this year to at least two. If the BOE leans into that and signals more tightening is coming, Gilt yields push higher.

The risk for bond bulls (people betting yields drop and prices rise) is that central banks all sound more hawkish than expected and yields spike across the board. That's the scenario where government debt underperforms everything else for another few weeks.

The risk for bond bears (people betting yields rise and prices fall) is that one or more central banks pivots to worrying about growth instead of inflation, which would send yields lower and mess up short positions.

Stephen Miller, former head of fixed income at BlackRock Australia, thinks central banks are going to lean hawkish this week: "Central bank rhetoric may just poke the bond bear and drive bond yields higher. Bond traders may well be surprised with the intensity of the focus on inflation."

If that happens, the trade is probably to stay short duration or underweight government bonds until there's clarity on whether oil prices stabilize or keep climbing. If oil drops back down and inflation pressures ease, central banks can afford to be more dovish, and bonds rally.

From a market structure perspective, government bonds are in a range. Shorter-term yields are elevated but not breaking out to new highs. Longer-term yields (10-year and beyond) are stuck in wide ranges with no clear direction.

That's a waiting pattern. Bonds need a catalyst to break out of this range, and this week could provide it if central banks give clearer signals. If they don't, expect more chop and low volatility.

The key levels to watch are 4.1%-4.4% on the 10-year Treasury, which has been the dominant range for the past month. A break above 4.4% suggests hawkish central bank messaging is winning and yields are heading higher. A break below 4.1% suggests dovish pivots or easing inflation concerns are taking over.

For traders watching this, the setup is neutral until proven otherwise. There's no strong directional bias yet. But this week's meetings could change that, and bond volatility could pick up if any of the major central banks surprise with more hawkish or dovish language than expected.